It's been another busy week in terms of economic outputs but don't worry - the Insights and Composite Team at Scottish Enterprise have provided a handy summary to help you navigate through the findings!

Here are some of the headline figures from this week:

• Globally, it's been a busy week for data releases with a flurry of PMIs out this week. Composite PMI results show business activity sustained a solid rate of expansion in output in November. However there continued to be a divergence between service and manufacturing activity - with the service sector pulling ahead while the manufacturing sector experienced a slowdown in growth. The OECD also released their December GDP growth forecasts this week - they are projecting growth of 3.2% in 2025 slowing to 2.9% in 2026 and then strengthening slightly to 3.1% in 2027. Downward pressures on growth include a softening labour market, falling confidence and persistent geopolitical and policy uncertainty.

• Across the UK both the manufacturing and service sectors expanded in November, although growth in the service sector slowed amid weakening demand conditions and fragile client confidence. In the construction sector - activity fell significantly in November as new orders decreased to the greatest extent since May 2020. The growth projections from the OECD were modest for the UK with economic growth expected to be steady for 2025 at 1.4% before falling to a moderate 1.2% in 2026. The organisation pointed to tighter fiscal policy (aka higher taxes) squeezing public spending as a cause for the slowdown, along with global trade and political headwinds. From other data 36% of businesses (with more than 10 employees) reported staffing costs had increased (a slight fall on the previous periods).

• For Scotland results from a Business Gateway survey found that around two thirds of SMEs are confident about their own business projects in December 2025 (Vs 74% in 2024) but were much less positive about the wider economy (only a quarter expressed optimism). Rising costs were reported as the most common challenge.

• Among our customers skill shortages and costs are ongoing challenges. Some companies are offering a condensed 4 day working week which is not only attractive to staff but also saves on electricity costs (e.g. factories can shut down on Fridays).

You can also find our regular commentaries online at: https://www.scottish-enterprise.com/insights-and-events/insights/economic-commentary 

Here's this week's summary from the Insights & Economics Team of the key economic and business data releases:

• For global releases this week, November survey data indicates continued growth in the Eurozone and Japan, despite cost pressures intensifying. The European Commission released their latest forecast which suggests EU growth will be driven by investment and consumption, with GDP expected to rise by 1.4% in 2025 and 2026, and 1.5% in 2027.

• In the UK, private sector growth slowed in November, with output price inflation easing to a 59-month low, but input costs accelerated, job losses increased, and business confidence deteriorated amid policy uncertainty and weak demand. CPI inflation fell for the first time in seven months to 3.6% in the year to October, strengthening expectations of a rate cut in December. See chart in slides.

• In Scotland, company insolvencies in October were unchanged from last year but remain above the long-run average.

• High labour costs are prompting SE customers to scale back recruitment, and concerns around the upcoming Budget are centred around the cost of doing business rising further.

You will find more details in the attached slides.

It's been a busy week in terms of economic outputs but don't worry - the Insights and Economics Team at Scottish Enterprise have provided a handy summary to help you navigate through the results!

Here are some of the headline figures from this week:

• Globally: Global business confidence held steady in October compared to June, though hiring and investment plans remain subdued. In the US, business outlook weakened, with activity expectations falling to their lowest point in a year. By contrast, confidence in China and Japan was more positive. Supply chains continue to show spare capacity, as manufacturers keep inventories lean and limited new input purchases.

• UK: The UK economy contracted slightly in September, with GDP down 0.1% after flat growth in August. Production fell by 2%, while services and construction posted modest gains (+0.2%). In July to September, the employment rate fell to 75% while the unemployment rose to 5%, and inactivity held steady at 21%. Vacancies were broadly unchanged over August to October. Meanwhile wage growth eased to 4.6% in the 3 months to September, down from 4.7% in the previous 3 months. On a more positive note, NatWest reported improved performance in half of UK regions in October, though Scotland saw a decline.

• Scotland: Scottish private sector activity fell in October, with businesses citing tighter client budgets, fewer new orders, and global uncertainty as challenges. In the labour market, the employment rate fell to 74.3% over the July to September period while the unemployment rate edged down to 3.7%. Payrolled employees declined by 16,000 over the year. Small business confidence weakened significantly in Q3 according to results from a Federation of Small Businesses Scotland Survey. Scotland's decline in confidence was the steepest in the UK excluding the East and West Midlands. From the Business Impact and Conditions Survey this week, export activity showed some resilience with 21% of firms exporting in the year to October (up from 19%), and 15% exported more than a year ago. However, costs are rising- 42% of exporters reported higher costs.

• For SE customers there are some concerns about the upcoming UK budget and potential tax increases.

Here is this week's summary of economic and business data releases from the Insights and Economics team:

• Global private sector activity accelerated in October, driven by the fastest growth in new work orders in 17 months. Both manufacturing and services contributed to the improvement, with the Euro area showing it's strongest expansion since mid-2023, while China's growth softened slightly despite a fifth consecutive month of gains. See this week's chart of the week for comparisons of global business activity.

• For the UK, manufacturing returned to growth after a year of contraction, helped by production restarts at Jaguar Land Rover, while services strengthened further, marking six months of expansion. However, construction activity fell at the steepest pace in over five years, and business surveys point to squeezed margins and cautious hiring due to changes in employer National Insurance contributions (NICs) implemented in April 2025. The Bank of England has held interest rates at 4% as inflation remains above the 2% target (3.8 in Sept). However, the bank believes that inflation has now peaked.

• No notable releases for Scotland.

• For SE customers, early-stage companies are finding it increasingly difficult to raise funding from investors due to increased risk aversion, leading many to seek financial support from organisations like Scottish Enterprise. In some cases, the inability to raise funds to advance their ventures and pay outstanding debts has resulted in businesses entering administration.

More detail and our 'chart of the week' can be found in the slides attached.